danske Commodities Seasonal and Sub Seasonal Forecasting For Power Trading User Guide

danske Commodities Seasonal and Sub Seasonal Forecasting For Power

Trading

Product Information

Specifications

• Product Name: Seasonal and Sub-seasonal Forecasting for Power Trading
• Source: wetteronline.de, edf.fr, ecmwf.int, MetDesk, Refinitiv
• Forecast Period: April 2023
• Region: Central Europe, Alps

Product Usage Instructions

1. Section 1: Introduction
   The Seasonal and Sub-seasonal Forecasting for Power Trading is a tool designed to provide critical information about hydrological situations in the Alps region. It offers insights into river levels, precipitation patterns, and power output from nuclear power plants. This information is crucial for traders and decision-makers in the power industry.

2. Section 2: Hydrological Situations in Central Europe
   During the summer of 2022, the transportation of coal along the Rhine was halted due to low river levels. In August 2022, restrictions on the use of cooling water from the Rhone river resulted in a decrease in power output from French nuclear power plants.

3. Section 3: Seasonal Forecasts
   The Seasonal Forecast for April 2023 indicates a slightly dry period. This forecast is based on data from sources such as wetteronline.de, edf.fr, ecmwf.int, and MetDesk.

4. Section 4: Development of Hydro Situation and Price
   The development of the hydro situation versus price during April 2023 shows that unexpected precipitation led to a decrease in the risk of a situation similar to that of 2022. The quarterly power prices in Germany for the coming four quarters are also provided.

5. Section 5: Forecasting Trends and Changes
   The focus of this tool is to forecast trends and unexpected changes in the market. It provides valuable insights into gradual or abrupt changes that are not expected by the market.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

• Q: What is the purpose of this tool?
  A: The tool aims to provide seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasting for power trading, specifically focusing on hydrological situations in the Alps region.

• Q: What information does it provide?
  A: It provides information on critical river levels, precipitation patterns, and power output from nuclear power plants in Central Europe.

• Q: Where does the data come from?
  A: The data comes from sources such as wetteronline.de, edf.fr, ecmwf.int, MetDesk, and Refinitiv.

• Q: How can this tool be helpful?
  A: The tool helps traders and decision-makers in the power industry make informed decisions based on the forecasted trends and unexpected changes in the market.

Seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasting for power trading

• Case-story: Hydrological situation in the Alps
• Insight: This is what is important for me
• Kim Bentzen
• Head of Meteorology

Some context

• Critical river levels in Central Europe during Summer 2022
• During July 2022 the transportation of coal along the Rhine was stopped due to low river levels
• During July 2022 the transportation of coal along the Rhine was stopped due to low river levels.
• During August 2022 restrictions of the use of cooling water from the Rhone river reduced the power output from French nuclear power plants.

EDF-2022-00278

• Current version of the message – v1
• Status : Active
• Publication date: 02/08/2022 17:17:38
• Start date: 02/08/2022 17:17:28
• Company: EDF

Due to the high temperatures forecasts on Rhone river, production restrictions are likely to affect Saint Alban nuclear production from August 6, 2022. However for grid constraints the production will be at least 700 MW and it may change according to the grid needs

• EDF-2022-00286

Current version of the message – v1

• Status : Active
• Publication date: 07/08/2022 12:14:26
• Start date: 07/08/2022 12:14:07
• Company: EDF

Cancel and replace message EDF-2022-00283 The “collège de l’ASN” approved the request for temporary modification of the thermal discharge limits of the Bugey, Saint Alban, Tricastin, Blayais and Golfech power plants, submitted by EDF at the request of the DGEC. The request has been approved by the competent minister. This derogation reduces the risk of production availability limitations in the coming days.

EC Seasonal, April 2023, Hydro forecast Summer 2023 looking slightly dry

• Some dryness shown by the seasonal models – including the EC Seasonal from April 2023, however not as extreme as in 2022.
• The starting point (April 2022) still showing a clear lack of Water (snow)

Development during April 2023 of the hydro situation versus price development

• As each and every low pressure system over the Alps exceeded expectations on precipitation during April, the risk for a new “2022- situation” has decreased to now being very low.
  • Quarterly power prices Germany coming four quarters:

We focus on forecasting the trends of the forecasts

• Either as gradual trends or a brupt changes , and the most value comes from the changes not expected by the market.

A wish list for future products

• A better understanding of what is changing behind the scenes of the forecasts for them to change the outlook.
• What has changed in the latest model update:
  • Change in Regime distribution
  • Change of the impact from change in ENSO
  • Change of the impact from change in MJO
  • and all the other known influencing factors.
  • Known errors in the modelling of the above.

LEGAL NOTICE

LEGAL NOTICE The contents of this publication are for general information and illustrative purposes only and are used at the reader’s own risk motion. However, Danske Commodities does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy, completeness, factual correctness, or reliability of any information in this publication and does not accept liability for errors, omissions, inacuracies, or typographical flaws The views and opinions expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of Danske Commodities. © Danske Commodities A/S. All rights reserved. Without limiting rights under copyright. no part of this document may be reproduced, stored in, or introduced into a retrieval system. or transmitted in any form by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise), or for any purpose without the express written permission of Danske Commodities A/S. Danske Commodities, Danske Commodities A/Sand the Danske Commodities logo are either registered trademarks or trademark o Danste Commodities AS in or other countries Refer to www.danskecommodities.com. Other trademarks referred to in this document are the property of their respective owners.

References

• Wetter aktuell, Wettervorhersage und Wetterbericht - WetterOnline

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