Net Zero 2050 Technical And Economic Pathways User Guide

KEY FINDINGS

Workforce Analysis – Idaho

Net-Zero Northwest : Technical and Economic Pathways to 2050 is an economy-wide deep decarbonization pathways analysis to guide actions that will put Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington on the path to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Idaho Stands to Gain Jobs with Clean Energy Transition

How would Idaho’s energy jobs change if the Northwest were on the path to net- zero emissions?

The Net-Zero Northwest (NZNW) Workforce-Idaho¹ analysis examines the jobs that would be created or displaced if the Northwest were on the path to achieving net-zero emissions, as modeled in the NZNW Energy Pathways² analysis, by industry and occupation in the electricity, fuels, buildings, and transportation sectors.
On the path to net-zero by 2050, energy employment in Idaho grows by 22% from 2021 to 2030, with net job growth in every sector, as seen in Figure 1:

• Transportation, the highest-employing energy sector examined in this analysis, sees a small net increase by 2030. However, in the long term (2050), it is a declining sector, largely due to lost Conventional Fueling Station jobs.
• The Buildings sector supports significant net growth—mainly in Residential Shell and Commercial HVAC jobs—driven by increased energy efficiency and building electrification efforts.
• Jobs supporting renewable Electricity generation capacity (largely Land-Based Wind and Nuclear) and related activities (Transmission and Distribution) increase, leading to significant overall growth for the sector.
• The early development of a Northwest clean fuels industry results in new Hydrogen and Biofuels jobs in Idaho, outpacing losses in fossil fuel subsectors for overall employment growth in the Fuels sector by 2030 and through 2050.

Above: Workers astride high voltage electrical cables. Photo credit: tong2530

Figure 1. Energy Employment by Sector in Idaho, 2021–2030
Includes Direct, Indirect, and Induced jobs
Idaho sees net job growth in all energy sectors by 2030, with Electricity supporting the largest increase.

Source: BW Research Partnership. CETI Net-Zero Northwest Workforce Analysis Regional and State Technical Reports, March 2024.

Idaho Electricity and Clean Fuels Subsectors Grow to Meet Demand

Figure 2 shows Idaho’s top four growing subsectors by 2035: three related to increasing renewable electricity capacity (Land-based Wind, Solar, and Distribution) and one related to clean fuels (Hydrogen).
Land-based Wind and Solar jobs grow to facilitate increased renewable electricity capacity, and Electricity Distribution jobs increase to help get that clean electricity to its end uses. Along with other growing Electricity subsectors, these increases result in 81% job growth for the sector as a whole by 2030.
Idaho requires 3,400 workers in the Land-Based Wind field by 2030, the majority of which will be directly involved with the construction of wind farms and the wind turbine engineering and design process. Vocational and technical schools, apprenticeship and pre-apprenticeship programs, community colleges, and construction trade unions will be key in training these workers to meet this demand. Idaho’s Solar jobs begin to significantly increase in 2035, reflecting results from the NZNW Energy Pathways-Electricity
analysis³.  The majority (72%) of these Solar jobs fall in the construction industry to support solar installations.
Electricity Distribution employment, primarily working in the power line and structure construction firms and electric power distribution utilities, increases by 55% to support 3,100 jobs by 2030. Training opportunities, both formal programs and less formal on-the-job training, should be developed to support these workers. Construction trade unions, apprenticeship and pre- apprenticeship programs, utilities, and community colleges can also help workforce development efforts.

Figure 2. Top Growing Subsectors in Idaho, 2021–2035
Includes Direct and Indirect jobs

Figure 2 on the previous page also shows that Hydrogen workers in Idaho, primarily working in the installation and repair of new hydrogen fuel generation plants, increase by 1,300 jobs by 2030. Workforce development for these roles can be supported by  training from construction trade unions and apprenticeship programs, as well as community colleges or utilities.
In this analysis, it is more difficult to characterize typical Hydrogen jobs associated with producing green electrolytic hydrogen than those in more established technologies.
Employment in the sector will likely be in a wide variety of roles, from installing and maintaining electrolyzers co-located with renewable generators to transmission and distribution of hydrogen fuels. These roles could mirror jobs already found in energy sectors, so existing workforce development strategies used in natural gas and renewable generation industries could be leveraged with adjustments to hydrogen-specific activities.

Opportunities to Retrofit Coal Power Plants with Nuclear Small Modular

Reactors

Figure 3 shows Idaho’s Electricity subsector jobs through 2040 on the left, with additional detail about the industry breakout of Nuclear jobs on the right. The NZNW Energy Pathways analysis found opportunity for Idaho to invest in retrofitting retiring coal power plants with small modular reactor (SMR) nuclear plants, taking advantage of Inflation Reduction Act incentives to do so before 2035⁴.
Nevertheless, SMR nuclear development is a nascent technology with an uncertain development path, and questions remain about feasibility, safety, and cost⁵.
The Nuclear subsector accounts for just 10 jobs in Idaho’s Electricity sector as of 2021 and peaks in 2030, adding 1,200 jobs to support construction of new installed capacity of SMRs. Vocational and technical schools and community colleges, as well as construction trade unions and private apprenticeship programs, may help alleviate the need for construction workers for these new facilities. In the longer term, the Nuclear subsector sees employment losses once construction demand is gone, and by 2050 the Nuclear subsector employs just 220 additional workers relative to the 2021 baseline.

Figure 3. Sector Highlight: Idaho Electricity Employment, 2021–2040
Includes Direct and Indirect jobs

Jobs in Idaho’s Nuclear subsector peak in 2030 due to projected timing of small modular reactor development, but the Electricity sector as a whole continues to grow through 2040.

The short-term nature of these construction jobs, which fluctuate with boom- and-bust cycles of development, raises legitimate concerns about the stability of employment in this industry. A mitigating factor to these issues is that while each individual construction project may provide short-term work, the significant investment that the NZNW Energy Pathways analysis found in renewables and low-carbon building tech- nology means continued demand for construction jobs in Idaho’s Electricity sectors through 2050, as other subsectors aside from Nuclear continue to grow, such as Land-Based Wind, Solar, Transmission, and Distribution.
To support the increasing demand for construction trades through 2030 and beyond, using the state’s existing pre- apprenticeship and apprenticeship programs in construction will be vital, in addition to creating tangible career outcomes for graduates of these programs. Developing relationships between training providers and clean energy employers is also a key step in strengthening the clean energy workforce pipeline in the region, in addition to supporting construction- related programs at community colleges, vocational schools, and other non-traditional education providers. Lastly, targeting workforce development efforts in underserved and marginalized communities in Idaho can help equitably distribute the benefits of increasing decarbonization investments.

An Equitable Transition is Not a Given

Despite net job growth in Idaho’s energy sectors by 2030, our analysis found largely similar wage tier distribution between 2021 and 2030, as seen in Figure 4. In 2030, over half (53%) of energy jobs across all sectors fall in the lowest wage tier, which is below a living wage for Idaho⁶.
It is therefore critical to promote strategies that prioritize job quality, such as labor unions, prevailing wage requirements, apprenticeships, project labor agreements, and more. In addition to strategies that promote job quality, intentional planning is needed to transition or train workers for the clean energy economy. New clean energy jobs may not exist in the same locations as existing fossil fuel jobs, and workforce development pathways may not currently be available in all regions of the state, which means that job seekers must leave their communities for training.
The NZNW Workforce-Idaho analysis offers direction for how employment would shift on the path toward net-zero emissions.
Areas for future research could include a comprehensive workforce needs assessment to provide further detail on clean energy workforce needs to guide targeted workforce development strategies.

Figure 4. Idaho Employment by Wage Tier, 2021 and 2030
Includes Direct and Indirect jobs

Source: BW Research Partnership. CETI Net-Zero Northwest Workforce Analysis Regional and State Technical Reports, March 2024.

Endnotes

1. Clean Energy Transition Institute. Net-Zero Northwest: Technical and Economic Pathways to 2050, Workforce Analysis. April 2024. https://www.nznw.org/workforce

2. Clean Energy Transition Institute. Net-Zero Northwest: Technical and Economic Pathways to 2050, Energy Pathways. June 2023. https://www.nznw.org/energy

3. Clean Energy Transition Institute. Net-Zero Northwest: Technical and Economic Pathways to 2050, Energy Pathways-Electricity. June 2023. https://www.nznw.org/energy/electricity

4. The Net-Zero Northwest Energy Pathways analysis included assumptions about Inflation Reduction Act investment tax credits and production tax credits for nuclear, including an additional bonus tax credit for nuclear sited in “energy communities.” The Net-Zero Northwest Energy Pathways analysis assumed these energy communities to be coal power plant repowering. See: The White House. “Clean Energy Tax Provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act.”
   September 21, 2023. https://www.whitehouse.gov/cleanenergy/clean-energy-tax- provisions/

5. Penn, Ivan and Brad Plumer. The New York Times. “Nuclear Energy Project in Idaho Is Canceled.” November 8, 2023. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/08/business/energy-environment/nuclear-energy-idaho-nuscale.html

6. BW Research used wage tiers based on the MIT Living Wage Calculator at median living wages for different living circumstances. While there are state-specific sources that could be used instead, the modeling team decided to use this national source to maintain consistency with the four Northwest states. Glasmeier, Amy K. “Living Wage Calculator.” Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 2023. https://livingwage.mit.edu/

Source

BW Research Partnership. Net-Zero Northwest Workforce Analysis- Idaho Technical Report, March 2024. https://www.nznw.org/files/workforce-technical- report-idaho

For more information, please see
Net-Zero Northwest Workforce Analysis
Workforce Analysis – Idaho
Key Findings
April 2024 nznw.org

References

• Home | Net-Zero Northwest
• Investing in America - CleanEnergy.gov | The White House

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